Severe Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service in Little Rock
Severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and night in much of Arkansas.
A strong storm system will move across Arkansas on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely in much of the state during the afternoon Wednesday, and will continue into Wednesday night, with severe thunderstorms possible.
The greatest thunderstorm potential will be in western Arkansas from mid-day through early evening (noon to around 6 PM), in central Arkansas from late afternoon through mid-evening (around 4 PM to 10 PM), and in eastern Arkansas between early evening and very early morning (around 7 PM to 1 AM).
The primary concern with any severe thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH, and large hail in excess of one inch in diameter. Tornadoes will also be possible.
Storm mode will initially start out as individual, discrete cells. As a cold front moves into the state during the late afternoon, storms will develop in a line along or just ahead of the front. The tornado potential will be highest in the cells out ahead of the front, though with the amount of low level wind shear present with this system, there could be some spin-ups in portions of the line. As the evening progresses, this will evolve into more of a wind threat.
The highest concern for severe thunderstorms will be in areas mainly east of a Harrison to Texarkana line.
Stronger storms will also be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall, with an inch or two possible in a short period of time.
There is increasing concern for potential severe thunderstorms at the end of this week into the weekend. All modes of severe weather would be possible, particularly over the western portion of the state, and during the Friday afternoon into Saturday time frame.
There is also increasing concern for potential heavy rainfall on Saturday into Sunday. The latest model forecasts are showing as much as four to six inches of rain possible in most of the state. This would lead to flash flooding concerns, and some river flooding concerns in several basins.
As always, please continue to monitor the latest information from your Arkansas National Weather Service Forecast Offices, and be prepared to take action if a watch or warning is issued for your area.